False Sense of Resolution: The Cycle of Retaliation and Calm
“Mowing the Grass” – A Perpetual Cycle: Over decades, Israeli strategy toward periodic uprisings or attacks has often been described as “cutting the grass” – administering a harsh blow to the enemy to buy a period of quiet. While tactically understandable, this approach creates a false sense of resolution. After each military operation, there is a lull that may feel like success: terrorism drops for a time, rocket fire pauses, a semblance of normalcy returns. However, if the underlying conflict remains unaddressed, these calms are only temporary. Israeli analysts themselves note that “mowing the grass” every few years is unsustainable as a long-term policy. The enemy “grass” (be it Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.) learns and grows back thicker – after each round, militants often acquire more sophisticated weapons or new tactics. For example, Israel’s crushing of Palestinian violence in the Second Intifada brought relative quiet by 2005, but a few years later Hamas rockets and subsequent wars in Gaza showed a new front had opened. Likewise, the deterrence gained after the 2006 Lebanon war eventually waned as Hezbollah rearmed with tens of thousands of missiles. The cycle of violence – clash, ceasefire, repeat – creates an illusion that Israel can simply manage the conflict indefinitely. In reality, each turn of the cycle often escalates the stakes and makes the next outbreak potentially more dangerous.
Complacency and Delay of Real Solutions: One of the most harmful effects of this cycle is complacency. When a round of fighting ends, many Israelis understandably prefer to enjoy the peace and move on, rather than dwell on its causes. There is a tendency to declare “we’ve restored deterrence” or “Hamas has learned its lesson,” and thus postpone tough political decisions. The brief calm can even reinforce hardline views – some conclude that force solved the problem (until the next time), so why pursue risky concessions? This was seen after operations like “Defensive Shield” (2002) or “Protective Edge” (2014), after which there were lulls and a sense that the status quo was manageable. Unfortunately, these interludes of quiet can be misleading: they do not equate to lasting peace, yet they reduce urgency among the public and leadership to engage in peace initiatives. The result is a constant resetting of the clock. Each time, the can gets kicked down the road a bit further. Years or decades pass with no comprehensive solution, while underlying issues (e.g. the blockade of Gaza, disenfranchisement of West Bank Palestinians, unresolved refugee claims) fester and grow more intractable. In effect, the false sense of “we handled it” delays real solutions and virtually guarantees that violence will erupt again, often in a more virulent form.
Strategic Myopia: Relying on force without a diplomatic horizon is a form of strategic short-sightedness that many experts warn against. Top military and intelligence veterans in Israel have often stated “there is no military solution to this conflict – only a political one.” They recognize that lasting security can only come from an agreement, not from endlessly “mowing down” the symptoms of the problem. As one analysis succinctly put it: “No more band-aids. No more endless cycles of violence.” True peace is “not merely the absence of tension; it is the presence of justice.” In concrete terms, this means that until the core political issues are resolved (borders, statehood, security guarantees, etc.), any quiet will be temporary. The long-term consequence of ignoring this is that Israel remains locked in an unending conflict management mode, expending lives and resources with no final victory. Indeed, security thinkers argue that by refusing to address the root issues, Israel may be undermining its own future security: “a refusal to address the core issues will prevent the one path that has any hope of protecting Israel’s security in the long term: a negotiated settlement.” In sum, the status quo gives a false sense of stability that could collapse at any moment – a perilous way to live for decades on end.
Rising Costs with Each Cycle: Another pattern is that each successive round of conflict often comes at greater cost. The adversaries adapt (as noted, rockets that once reached Ashkelon now reach Tel Aviv or beyond), and international tolerance shifts (global outrage grows with each high-casualty war). Thus, the price Israel pays – in lives, money, diplomatic fallout – tends to increase over time. For example, the confrontation with Hamas in 2023–2024 was far more intense and costly than earlier Gaza flare-ups. Relying on periodic force can also embolden more radical elements on the other side (who point to the cycle as proof that Israel only understands force). It’s a vicious cycle: hawks on each side reinforce hawks on the other. Over decades, this feedback loop has hardened positions and made compromises harder to sell to both Israelis and Palestinians. The longer the cycle continues, the more difficult it becomes to break, as mistrust and bitterness compound. The false dawns after each conflict – the feeling that “maybe this time they’ve learned their lesson” – have repeatedly been proven wrong. A growing number of Israelis, including former security officials, now warn that conflict management has failed and that a different course (meaning genuine conflict resolution) is needed. Breaking out of the cycle is not easy, but the alternative is an endless loop that steadily erodes Israel’s security and hope.
Data and Sources
- The “mowing the grass” doctrine is widely referenced in Israeli defense circles and academic literature.[1]
- Hezbollah’s arsenal reportedly exceeds 100,000 rockets as of 2024, according to Israeli military sources.[2]
- The 2023–2024 Gaza war resulted in more than 35,000 Palestinian deaths and mass displacement.[3]
- UNICEF and other humanitarian organizations estimate over 50,000 children have been killed or injured since October 2023.[4]
- RAND Corporation and Israeli think tanks argue that military deterrence without political resolution leads to repeated escalation.[5]
Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Caption: Aftermath of the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, 1994. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.
